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Volume 2 Article List

An Introduction to Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) Technical Analysis

This article is of great interest to readers using (or planning to use) a computer for forecasting. MEM is the first article in a series on cyclic prediction. In it, Dr. Warren presents a method of adaptive filtering and data forecasting. The article also contains a handy glossary of cyclic terms. By Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.; pages 12-16.

Software Review: Ganntrader I

By George M. Edwards, Jr.; pages 17-19.

Gold Swings Revisited

Thompson favors us with a very practical example of how a swing chart can be used for price level support and resistance trading. This technique is easy to implement and maintain, with the added corroboration of several generations of use. By Jesse H. Thompson; pages 20-23.

Commodity Options: Limited RiskHigh Leverage Potential

In this article, Maturi takes readers through an introductory example of how commodity options may be used in the silver market with less worry. By Richard J. Maturi; pages 24-26.

Software Review: CompuTrac: My Trading Partner

By Harry Schirding; pages 28-34.

Chapter 11 Stocks: Why I Became a Junkman

This is an intriguing tale of trading Chapter 11 stocks. Beginning with getting "hooked on junk," and progressing through a discussion of different kinds of "junk," Dunbar points out a number of advantages to trading the stocks of troubled corporations. By Bill Dunbar; pages 35-41.

March/April 1984

Computers in the Futures Industry

In this article, Taylor describes how microcomputers can be used to aid traders in futures market trades. He discusses optimizing moving averages and points out a number of factors to be taken into account. In addition, Taylor shows examples of how to effectively display statistical results. By William T. Taylor; pages 48-54.

Optimizing the Maximum Entropy Method

Dr. Warren continues his series of research articles on the mathematical forecasting process called the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM). This article looks at optimizing procedures in obtaining the most significant input, while filtering extraneous noise. By Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D.; pages 55-59.

November Soybeans: Price, Action and Resistance

This case study is a great exercise in market observation and the decision process behind maintaining trading discipline. Thompson presents a study of price, action and resistance using soybeans as an example. By Jesse H. Thompson; pages 60-65.

Fibonacci Forecast Examples

Teaching by examples, Emmett has prepared a number of sample forecasts in this article based on his investigation of Fibonacci ratio patterns in market price and elapsed time. The subjects his studies cover: hogs, cattle, wheat, sugar, soybeans, Swiss franc, gold and silver futures. By Tucker J. Emmett; pages 66-73.

Novice Speculator

In his introductory article, Sweeney shares his experience of the transition from "dabbler" to full-time trader. He notes some of the pitfalls to avoid, as well as advantages of a life in market speculation. By John Sweeney; pages 74-75.

Analyzing Risk/Reward Tradeoffs

Gehm presents the reader with a run-down of key factors to consider when selecting a money manager. He discusses a helpful technique which can eliminate the fear of allowing someone else control of your money. By Fred S. Gehm; pages 76-79.

June 1984 Gold: Studies in Price Action

Using June 1984 gold as an example, Thompson presents a timely study of this commodity's price action. Chart pattern and support/resistance area identification are highlighted. By Jesse H. Thompson; pages 84-86.

Lane's Stochastics

Dr. Lane publishes his original explanation of stochastics development and his observed oscillator rules. This is a "do-it-yourself" article on stochastic plots and their use for choosing market entry points. By George C. Lane, M.D.; pages 87-90.

Program Enhancement: TRIX: Triple Exponential Smoothing Oscillator

This article documents an improvement to a BASIC computer program, TRIX, published in the July 1983 issue and optimized in Dr. Warren's September 1983 article. The program eliminates the requirement that a chart be used in selecting a smoothing constant. Hutson explains how to compute the required coefficient based on the cyclic cutoff frequency. By Jack K. Hutson; pages 91-93.

Stochastic Oscillator

In this article, Schirding explains how stochastics are calculated and comments (with examples) on their application. His detailed description shows how to record stochastics and readers will learn how to "trade the line" using this tool. By Harry Schirding; pages 94-97.

The Inside Man

This whimsical, easy-to-read piece covers the psychological conditions a trader must deal with for success in the stock market. Trading must be performed by an individual who is at constant risk of actual or emotional loss. Even when winning, the peril of loss is always the trader's primary motivation. By Bill Dunbar; pages 98-101.

Filtered Price Data: Moving Averages vs. Exponential Moving Averages

This article addresses the mathematical question of whether there is a way to relate a simple linear weighted moving average to an exponential moving average. By Jack K. Hutson; pages 102-103.

Software Review: Stocker1

By John F. Kepka; pages 104-105.

Newsletter Review: Commodity Trader's Consumer Report

By John Sweeney; pages 105-106.

Book Review: Profits in the Stock Market

By John F. Kepka; pages 106-107.

Newsletter Review: Weiss Research

By John Sweeney; pages 107-108.

Book and Software Review: Your Personal Computer Can Make You Rich in Stocks and Commodities

By John Sweeney; page 108.

Novice Speculator: My First System

Sweeney presents a day-trading technique he discovered as a full-time novice speculator. He illustrates his experience using Treasury Bonds over a three-month time period. By John Sweeney; pages 110-112.

Fourier Spectral Analysis

An explanation of Fourier Spectral Analysis concentrating on the interpretation of the results and the intuitive, common sense aspects rather than the mathematics, using frequency vs. cycle length displays. By William T. Taylor; pages 116-122.

Maximum Entropy Optimization
A look at a promising system for short-term spectrum analysis and trend forecasting. This article discusses the process of obtaining an optimal set of MEM coefficients using the author's computer code as adapted to the CompuTrac system. By Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. and Jack K. Hutson; pages 123-131.

The Seduction of Leverage
Thompson lines up some of the common pitfalls and how to avoid them. By Jesse H. Thompson; pages 132-135.

History: Corner The Market
A reprint from August 1911 edition of The Ticker Magazine, with an introduction by its editor and publisher, Richard D. Wyckoff. This article chronicles the Joseph Leiter wheat deal of 1898 on the Chicago Board of Trade. By Stocks & Commodities Staff; pages 136-140.

Book Review: Commodity Market Money Management By John Sweeney; page 141.

Novice Speculator: An Anti-COMMODEX System
How could one exploit the fact that a consistent success/failure ratio is the single most important variable in trading? Here Sweeney does and bases it on the COMMODEX system. By John Sweeney; pages 142-145.

Cobweb Dynamics: Microeconomic Basis for Technical Stock Market Analysis

Here, the author justifies the economic basis of technical stock market analysis. He also identifies and explains the implications of shifting effects of the slope relationship between the supply and demand curves on the pattern of price fluctuations. By Kent Kachigan; pages 151-157.

Is The Stock Market Random?

Dunbar tackles the Random Walk theory/Efficient Market hypothesis: Is there anything to this? By Bill Dunbar; pages 158-163.

Trading Stock Index Options

Kazmierczak describes how he used his Stocker1 software program to trade the AMEX Index. By Paul A. Kazmierczak; pages 164-166.

Stochastic Oscillator Program for the HP-41C(V)

Johnson describes the stochastic oscillator program he uses on his Hewlett-Packard HP-41C(V) hand-held calculator. By Dr. Charles F. Johnson; pages 167-168.

Price Forecasting With Cycles

Introducing a new method of forecasting with the Moving Window-Spectral method. Included is a detailed example to illustrate systematic estimation and forecasting and a trading rule. By A.D. Ridley, Ph.D.; pages 169-173.

Decision Making

Starting with a bit of advice from Ben Franklin, Gehm offers a few ways to routinize your decision-making through the use of a BASIC computer routine outlined in the article. By Fred S. Gehm; pages 174-180.

Smoothing Factors: Exponentially Smoothed Moving Averages

How to choose smoothing factors for your exponentially smoothed moving averages. By Donald R. Lambert; pages 182-183.

Book Review: An Easy Course in Using the HP-12C and Other Financial Calculators

By John Sweeney; page 184.

Forecasting With Maximum Entropy

A detailed description of forecasting with maximum entropy which includes a BASIC computer routine. (See the February 1985 issue for additional program information.) By Anthony W. Warren, Ph.D. and Jack K. Hutson; pages 189-196.

Cornerstone of Technical Analysis: The Dow Theory

A rundown of the Dow Theory and how it works. By Timothy A. Maguire; pages 197-201.

Season for Bottom Fishing: Stock Market Business Cycle

Dunbar wondered how to pick market bottoms and tells you what he found out in his investigation. By Bill Dunbar; pages 202-206.

Speculation Philosophies

Thompson examines some old axioms well worth reconsidering. By Jesse H. Thompson; pages 207-208.

Momentum Indicators and Market Cycles

The use of "differencing" (otherwise known as oscillators or momentum) and how it relates to price movement is examined. By John Nicholas; pages 209-211.

Investment Software Benefits

Frankel looks at a number of popular software packages designed expressly for the technical trader. By Gerald Frankel; pages 212-216.

Trend Again?

This short article argues the point that although trend-following may be dated, experts have time and again proven its worth for trading. By Jesse H. Thompson; page 216.

Newsletter Review: HAL Market Cycles and HAL Advisory and Chart Services

By Harry Schirding; pages 217-218.

Software Review: CSI Software

By John F. Kepka; pages 218-220.

Interest Rates and Currencies: Financial Futures

Sweeney illustrates the saying "When you're on top, don't believe it" with T-bonds and Deutschemarks. By John Sweeney; pages 221-223.